{ "as_of": "2026-09-19", "status": "FIRST_GOVERNED_LONGITUDINAL_FINDINGS", "denominator_rule": "Only explicitly dated official observations with population/scope notes are included.", "findings": [ { "id": "WGI-LONG-001", "state": "VERIFIED_BOUNDED", "title": "Early-career volume can move materially without establishing AI causation", "finding": "Official Deloitte UK announcements show >1,700 early-career programme joiners in 2023, ~1,400 in 2024, 1,498 announced across September/December 2025, and >1,500 in a broader 2026 early-career population including technical academies. Official PwC UK material reports 1,618 graduate + 175 school-leaver places in 2023, >1,500 graduate/school-college joiners in 2024 and ~1,300 in 2025. Neither firm's cited intake sources establish AI as the cause of the changes.", "institutions": [ "Deloitte UK", "PwC UK" ], "limit": "Populations and wording differ by year; figures are not pooled into a market statistic.", "source_refs": [ { "institution": "Deloitte UK", "date": "2023-09-04", "url": "https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/about/press-room/seventeen-hundred-graduates-and-apprentices-start-their-careers-at-deloitte.html" }, { "institution": "Deloitte UK", "date": "2024-09-03", "url": "https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/about/press-room/fourteen-hundred-graduates-and-apprentices-set-to-kick-off-their-careers-at-deloitte.html" }, { "institution": "Deloitte UK", "date": "2025-09-01", "url": "https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/about/press-room/deloitte-welcomes-next-generation-of-talent.html" }, { "institution": "Deloitte UK", "date": "2026-09-01", "url": "https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/about/press-room/deloitte-opens-doors-for-1500-new-graduates-apprentices-and-early-careers-talent.html" }, { "institution": "PwC UK", "date": "2023-09-20", "url": "https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/corporate-news/pwc-uk-top-grad-employer.html" }, { "institution": "PwC UK", "date": "2024-09-17", "url": "https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/corporate-news/pwc-uk-voted-the-uk-s-top-graduate-employer-.html" }, { "institution": "PwC UK", "date": "2025-09-22", "url": "https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/corporate-news/pwc-uk-voted-one-of-the-top-uk-graduate-employers.html" } ], "question": "Do published intake figures establish AI-driven graduate hiring cuts?", "next_evidence_needed": "Comparable completed-start counts and explicit causal evidence separating AI from other causes." }, { "id": "WGI-LONG-002", "state": "VERIFIED_DATED_POLICY_AND_EMPLOYER_DESCRIBED_REDESIGN", "title": "PwC documented selection policy and a skills-enabled graduate redesign", "finding": "PwC's September 2024 release stated that graduates applying across its business areas would have a final-stage in-person interview in the coming recruitment season. Its 2025 release described a skills-enabled redesign of the graduate offering. Current 2026 selection protects independent assessment performance, while the Strategy pathway names technical, AI and human skills.", "institution": "PwC UK", "limit": "The 2024 release establishes the announced policy. Without a comparable earlier interview-policy observation, it does not establish when this stage was first added. The sequence does not prove AI caused the policy or redesign.", "source_refs": [ { "institution": "PwC UK", "date": "2024-09-17", "url": "https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/corporate-news/pwc-uk-voted-the-uk-s-top-graduate-employer-.html" }, { "institution": "PwC UK", "date": "2025-09-22", "url": "https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/corporate-news/pwc-uk-voted-one-of-the-top-uk-graduate-employers.html" }, { "institution": "PwC UK", "date": "2026-09-19", "url": "https://www.pwc.co.uk/careers/early-careers/applying/assessment-selection-process.html" }, { "institution": "PwC UK", "date": "2026-09-19", "url": "https://www.pwc.co.uk/careers/early-careers/graduate/strategy.html" } ], "question": "Does PwC\u2019s evidence establish when interviews changed and why?", "next_evidence_needed": "An earlier dated policy for the same programme and explicit change rationale." }, { "id": "WGI-LONG-003", "state": "VERIFIED_WORK_CHANGE_SIGNAL", "title": "AI is entering the work-development side of the early-career equation", "finding": "PwC's September 2026 financial-results statement says firm-wide AI tools and learning are helping people take on higher-value work earlier in their careers. Deloitte's 2025 intake introduced new joiners to its GenAI platform and its 2026 induction explicitly highlights judgement, creativity, empathy, adaptability and technology change.", "institutions": [ "PwC UK", "Deloitte UK" ], "limit": "These statements establish employer-described work/capability change, not displacement of junior jobs or proof that human judgement has become more valuable.", "source_refs": [ { "institution": "PwC UK", "date": "2026-09-17", "url": "https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/corporate-news/pwc-uk-2026-financial-results--transformation-delivering-results.html" }, { "institution": "Deloitte UK", "date": "2025-09-01", "url": "https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/about/press-room/deloitte-welcomes-next-generation-of-talent.html" }, { "institution": "Deloitte UK", "date": "2026-09-01", "url": "https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/about/press-room/deloitte-opens-doors-for-1500-new-graduates-apprentices-and-early-careers-talent.html" } ], "question": "What do employers say about AI and early-career work?", "next_evidence_needed": "Task-level changes, supervision and training measures, and independently measured learning outcomes." } ], "strategic_implication": "WGI can now begin answering the AI/early-career question longitudinally rather than only cross-sectionally. The strongest current evidence supports simultaneous changes in intake, selection, capability language and work design while preserving causal uncertainty.", "reuse_rule": "All derivatives retain the finding ID, dated sources, population and limitation. A derivative is not an additional observation." }